EUR/DKK: More intervention, another rate hike likely  – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank point out that the Danmarks Nationalbank (central bank of Denmark) made another FX intervention in December. They consider it needs to raise interest rates again by 10 basis points less than the European Central Bank early on February.

Central Bank of Denmark intervenes again

“Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) sold another DKK5.8bn in FX intervention in December to floor EUR/DKK around the 7.4360-65 level. It comes on top of the DKK3.7bn it sold in November and brings the total amount of FX intervention since it widened the policy rate spread to ECB in September to DKK9.5bn.”

“EUR/DKK still trades close to the 7.4360-65 floor, which means DN will likely need to make a move on the policy rate again. We expect it hikes 10bp less than ECB on 2  February, i.e. it hikes 40bp in response to a 50bp ECB hike, and widens the spread to -35bp.”

“Government deposits were DKK161.8bn in December – that is more than enough to cover the DKK128bn gross financing need in 2023.”