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10 Apr 2015
UK Q1 GDP expected at 0.5%qoq – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, shares their forecast for UK GDP growth, expecting a 0.5% qoq Q1 GDP growth and 2.4% yoy for 2015.
Key Quotes
“Our GDP Tracker is signalling growth of 0.5% q/q in Q1 2015, unaltered from our initial estimate made on 13 March. There has been some movement in the main GDP output sub-components but they appear to be netting-out.”
“Stronger-than-expected retail sales volumes in February and the bounce in the Services PMI in March are tempered by the surprise 0.2% m/m decline in ONS services output in January.”
“ONS industrial and construction output data for February disappointed, leaving these sectors on track to exert a modest drag on GDP in Q1.”
“Overall, 0.5% q/q GDP growth in Q1 would hardly be a disaster but would, at the margin, tend to reinforce the loss of momentum theme.”
“We stick with our sub-consensus 2.4% full-year 2015 GDP forecast.”
Key Quotes
“Our GDP Tracker is signalling growth of 0.5% q/q in Q1 2015, unaltered from our initial estimate made on 13 March. There has been some movement in the main GDP output sub-components but they appear to be netting-out.”
“Stronger-than-expected retail sales volumes in February and the bounce in the Services PMI in March are tempered by the surprise 0.2% m/m decline in ONS services output in January.”
“ONS industrial and construction output data for February disappointed, leaving these sectors on track to exert a modest drag on GDP in Q1.”
“Overall, 0.5% q/q GDP growth in Q1 would hardly be a disaster but would, at the margin, tend to reinforce the loss of momentum theme.”
“We stick with our sub-consensus 2.4% full-year 2015 GDP forecast.”