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14 Apr 2015
Fade short-term EUR/USD gains – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Fundamentally the outlook for EUR remains bearish, and the break of the support at 1.0715 targets 1.0390, view FX Strategists at TD Securities.
Key Quotes
“Positive US data (especially a bounce in retail sales which will point to a decent hand-off to Q2) should lift the USD while, for now, disappointing data outcomes are only likely to give EURUSD sellers a better opportunity to get involved via short-term and limited bounces.”
“We sense that last week’s EURUSD slide left some market participants behind, coming close after the long weekend when more consolidation was generally expected. We were thinking along similar lines.”
“Our FV estimate for EURUSD, based on spot regressions with terms of trade, 2-year spreads and relative equity market performance has continued to decline and comes in this morning at 1.0466, a big figure below spot.”
“Even if there appears to have been little news behind the EUR’s latest dip, lower levels remain fully justified from a fundamental perspective and we think investors risk being left behind by the slide in the EUR if they do not have the position on.”
“Technically, we think last week’s break of 1.0715 targets an immediate drop to 1.0390. Look to fade short-term EURUSD rallies.”
Key Quotes
“Positive US data (especially a bounce in retail sales which will point to a decent hand-off to Q2) should lift the USD while, for now, disappointing data outcomes are only likely to give EURUSD sellers a better opportunity to get involved via short-term and limited bounces.”
“We sense that last week’s EURUSD slide left some market participants behind, coming close after the long weekend when more consolidation was generally expected. We were thinking along similar lines.”
“Our FV estimate for EURUSD, based on spot regressions with terms of trade, 2-year spreads and relative equity market performance has continued to decline and comes in this morning at 1.0466, a big figure below spot.”
“Even if there appears to have been little news behind the EUR’s latest dip, lower levels remain fully justified from a fundamental perspective and we think investors risk being left behind by the slide in the EUR if they do not have the position on.”
“Technically, we think last week’s break of 1.0715 targets an immediate drop to 1.0390. Look to fade short-term EURUSD rallies.”