FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team notes Credit Agricole views that Fed member speeches and the IP data release ahead may stall any possible USD bounce resulted from a expected rebound in today’s retail sales print.

Key Quotes

“The highlight of the day is likely to be the March US retail sales. Markets are looking for a bounce of 1.1%MoM in the headline and 0.7% MoM in the ex Auto and gas print. The release should confirm that recent weakness in domestic demand was transitory, attributed to the harsh winter conditions in the US.”

“We further suspect that any rebound in domestic demand in March will be magnified by the severity of the downturn in the preceding months. Indeed, investors and the Fed may have to wait for 'less noisy' Q2 data before deciding on the timing of lift-off.”

“Last but not least, the IP data due on Wednesday should be the mirror image of retail sales. In particular, warmer weather in March and continuing dis-investment in the US mining sector are expected to trigger sharp IP contraction. This could weaken the case for stimulus removal any time soon.”

“The upshot of all that is that any USD-bounce on the back of recovering retail sales may be difficult to sustain ahead of more US data and Fed speakers ahead.”

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