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11 Dec 2015
Expect EUR/USD to trade in 1.0750-1.1150 range as we greet Fed lift-off – MUFG
FXStreet (Delhi) – Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, notes that the euro has continued to correct higher against the US dollar since the ECB’s less dovish than expected policy announcements although the bulk of the adjustment occurred in the initial aftermath.
Key Quotes
“The clear out of short positions has exacerbated the move higher for the euro in the near-term beyond justified by the relative economic fundamentals alone. The renewed slide in commodity prices and the renminbi has also contributed to more risk-averse trading conditions in the near-term supporting further position liquidation and the euro.”
“Long speculative US dollar positions are being lightened as well ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting as the market is fearful that the Fed will deliver a “dovish” communication surprise should it over compensate for the first rate hike since June 2006. Still the US dollar has already weakened in advance of the FOMC meeting and the US interest rate market is already discounted very limited tightening in the coming years both of which provide a higher hurdle for US dollar weakness to extend much further in the near-term.”
Key Quotes
“The clear out of short positions has exacerbated the move higher for the euro in the near-term beyond justified by the relative economic fundamentals alone. The renewed slide in commodity prices and the renminbi has also contributed to more risk-averse trading conditions in the near-term supporting further position liquidation and the euro.”
“Long speculative US dollar positions are being lightened as well ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting as the market is fearful that the Fed will deliver a “dovish” communication surprise should it over compensate for the first rate hike since June 2006. Still the US dollar has already weakened in advance of the FOMC meeting and the US interest rate market is already discounted very limited tightening in the coming years both of which provide a higher hurdle for US dollar weakness to extend much further in the near-term.”