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5 Jan 2016
Euro area HICP in the limelight today – RBC CM
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at RBC CM suggests that market focus will today shift on the flash release of Euro area HICP inflation.
Key Quotes
“The long-awaited base effects from previous oil price declines are due to kick in this month, as well as in January. However, the effect is likely to be less pronounced than initially expected in December as the more recent slide in energy prices appears to have fed through to the consumer quite rapidly, in particular via reduced petrol and heating.”
“As such, we look for a sub-consensus 0.3% y/y reading for headline HICP. In turn, this would also underscore our view that the ECB’s latest staff projections––revised only a few weeks ago––are still a tad optimistic.”
Key Quotes
“The long-awaited base effects from previous oil price declines are due to kick in this month, as well as in January. However, the effect is likely to be less pronounced than initially expected in December as the more recent slide in energy prices appears to have fed through to the consumer quite rapidly, in particular via reduced petrol and heating.”
“As such, we look for a sub-consensus 0.3% y/y reading for headline HICP. In turn, this would also underscore our view that the ECB’s latest staff projections––revised only a few weeks ago––are still a tad optimistic.”