US: Empire state survey details were mixed - Nomura

Research Team at Nomura notes that the US Empire State Survey’s headline index was at 6.5 in January, slightly below expectations (Nomura: 7.0, Consensus: 8.5), suggesting manufacturers in New York State reported continued growth in business activity.

Key Quotes

“Details were mixed, with the new orders index at 3.1, down 7.3pp from the prior reading. The unfilled orders index improved, but remained negative at -1.7. The number of employees index indicates contraction in hiring activity, despite a decent improvement to -1.7 from -12.2. But the top-line reading is little changed compared to the December reading, which was lowered to 7.6 (previously reported as 9.0) by annual benchmark revisions to reflect the latest seasonal factors.”

“Six-month-ahead business conditions index was unchanged from the prior month, implying steady near-term optimism. This appears consistent with our expectation that the optimism after the election may not improve further without additional clarity in potential policy changes proposed by the incoming administration.”