US NFP: 190,000 jobs were likely created in May - Scotiabank

As the calendar flips over to June, May’s nonfarm payrolls land today and claims remain very low which signals subdued firings as analysts at Scotiabank guesstimate that 190,000 jobs were created in May.

Key Quotes

“The fact that March only saw 79,000 jobs created and April landed at 211k suggests little deferred hiring activity for a two-month average of only 145,000 jobs created. That sits toward the lower end of the rolling two-month average changes of recent years and may indicate a cooling pace of employment growth after a temporary acceleration. Nominal wage growth has also been cooling somewhat from a high of 2.9% y/y in December to 2.5% in April and exhibiting signs of a top over the past year or so. In inflation-adjusted terms, wages are flat and not conducive to accelerated spending growth.”