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14 Feb 2014
USD/JPY finishing up sub 102 psychological handle
FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has been consolidating the move lower this week with a slide that took the pair decisively into negative territory and confirmed the downside.
The US dollar remains on the defensive, and as strategists at Brown Bothers Harriman explained, “ One would never know looking at the price action in the capital markets that earlier this week, new Fed Chair Yellen made it clear that the tapering course that Bernanke put the Fed on at the end of last year will continue barring a significant deviation from its expectations”. Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank noted that the USD/JPY has broken back below 102 and is now flirting with a test of its 100‐day MA at 101.39. “Volatility levels have dropped level, suggesting that the USD/JPY move is not risk induced but instead a reflection on going equity weakness and concerns over earnings and the ability for the BoJ to shift to a more aggressive policy in the spring." She continued, and said, "We would not fight the near‐term move; but expect that USD/JPY will eventually turn higher as the BoJ does move towards more aggressive policy. We hold a year‐end target of 109.USD/JPY short‐term technicals: mixed— signals shift between buy and sell suggesting some uncertainty in markets."
USD/JPY Levels
The 20 DMA is 102.67, the 50 DMA is 103.46 and the 200 DMA is 100.18. RSI (14) reads 43.09. Supports are ascending from 101.07, 101.25, 101.40, 101.51. Spot is 101.80 while resistances are 102.41, 102.77, 102.94 and 103.45.
The US dollar remains on the defensive, and as strategists at Brown Bothers Harriman explained, “ One would never know looking at the price action in the capital markets that earlier this week, new Fed Chair Yellen made it clear that the tapering course that Bernanke put the Fed on at the end of last year will continue barring a significant deviation from its expectations”. Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank noted that the USD/JPY has broken back below 102 and is now flirting with a test of its 100‐day MA at 101.39. “Volatility levels have dropped level, suggesting that the USD/JPY move is not risk induced but instead a reflection on going equity weakness and concerns over earnings and the ability for the BoJ to shift to a more aggressive policy in the spring." She continued, and said, "We would not fight the near‐term move; but expect that USD/JPY will eventually turn higher as the BoJ does move towards more aggressive policy. We hold a year‐end target of 109.USD/JPY short‐term technicals: mixed— signals shift between buy and sell suggesting some uncertainty in markets."
USD/JPY Levels
The 20 DMA is 102.67, the 50 DMA is 103.46 and the 200 DMA is 100.18. RSI (14) reads 43.09. Supports are ascending from 101.07, 101.25, 101.40, 101.51. Spot is 101.80 while resistances are 102.41, 102.77, 102.94 and 103.45.