US: Downside risk to University of Michigan sentiment - HSBC

In September 2005, shortly after Hurricane Katrina made landfall in late August, the Michigan consumer sentiment index fell by around 12 points, points out the analysis team at HSBC.

Key Quotes

“The decline in sentiment was partly related to the disaster itself, but also reflected a steep rise in gasoline prices as crude oil production in the Gulf Coast area was heavily disrupted.”

“There could be some downside risk to this month's Michigan sentiment index in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey. We expect a decline of around 4 points from 96.8 in August to 92.7 in September. Average national gasoline prices have increased by about 30 cents per gallon over the past two weeks, reflecting a sizeable disruption to refining activity. This compares with a rise of around 70 cents over the weeks leading up to and just after Hurricane Katrina.”