EUR/NOK seen at 9.10 in 12-month – Danske Bank

Kristoffer Lomholt, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, belives the cross could slip back to the 9.10 area within a year’s view.

Key Quotes

“We have seen EUR/NOK move sharply lower in the first months of the year as foreign investors have returned to the NOK market amid improved fundamentals and higher NOK rates”.

“In the near-term we are cautious on positioning, a thin domestic data calendar, global risk appetite and external support factors for the short end of the NOK-curve; i.e. the price of offshore USD. However, we still see the relative growth outlook, valuation and the 2017 terms of trade shock as eventual NOK positives. In addition, the outlook of a NB September hike still leaves potential for somewhat higher short-end NOK rates”.

“We leave our profile unchanged, forecasting the cross at 9.50 in 1M, 9.40 in 3M, 9.20 in 6M and 9.10 in 12M”.