NZ: Truckometer Heavy Traffic Index rose 3.0% in May - ANZ

The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index rose 3.0% m/m in May (seasonally adjusted) and by looking through the monthly volatility, the 6-month average shows the index appears to have stabilised after losing momentum over the first few months of 2018, according to analysts at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“With recent data suggesting some mild downside risk around our GDP pick of 0.6% q/q in Q1, stabilisation provides a bit of reassurance that growth isn’t about to roll over.”

“Annual growth in the index (on a 3-month average basis) lifted from 2.9% to 4.7%, and remains consistent with GDP growth holding close to trend (~3%) in the near term.”

“The Light Traffic Index lifted 1.1% m/m in May (sa). This index gives a 6-month lead on the direction of the economy and is best interpreted as a measure of momentum.”

“The recent broader data flow has turned decidedly patchier, consistent with the less upbeat signal coming from our Truckometer indexes over recent months. In this light, the recent improvement is an encouraging sign that the economy will push through.”