AUD/USD bounces off one-week low, still deep in the red near 0.7100 mark
- A combination of factors dragged AUD/USD lower for the third successive day on Monday.
- Bets for a 50 bps Fed rate hike in March underpinned the buck amid geopolitical tensions.
- The anti-risk flow contributed to the bearish pressure around the perceived riskier aussie.
The AUD/USD pair remained depressed through the first half of the European session and was last seen trading around the 0.7100 mark, just a few pips above the one-week low.
The pair extended last week's rejection slide from the vicinity of mid-0.7200s, or the 100-day SMA hurdle and continued losing ground for the third successive day on Monday. The US dollar remained well supported by the prospects for a faster policy tightening by the Fed. This, along with the risk-off impulse in the markets, weighed on the perceived riskier aussie and exerted pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
The markets seem convinced that the Fed would adopt a more aggressive policy response to combat stubbornly high inflation and have been pricing in a 50 bps rate hike in March. The bets were boosted further after data released last Thursday showed that the headline US CPI accelerated to the highest level since February 1982 during the first month of 2022. Adding to this, the core CPI climbed to 6.0% from a year ago.
Apart from this, worries over an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine took its toll on the global risk sentiment and further benefitted the greenback's relative safe-haven status. This was seen as another factor that dragged the AUD/USD pair back below the 0.7100 mark. The downtick, however, lacked any follow-through, warranting some caution for aggressive bearish traders and before positioning for any further losses.
In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, traders might take cues from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's appearance later during the North American session. It is worth recalling that Bullard called for 100 bps rate hikes over the next three FOMC policy meetings and hence, his remarks, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair.
Apart from this, geopolitical developments and the broader market risk sentiment should allow traders to grab some short-term opportunities around the AUD/USD pair. The focus would then shift to the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, due for release during the Asian session on Tuesday.
Technical levels to watch