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25 Aug 2014
AUD/USD: We prefer to fade the gains - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, notes that fading AUD/USD gains is still their preferred strategy, although he admits that the charts are vague on where the optimal entry point is right now.
Key Quotes
"Since our last update, AUDUSD has moved broadly sideways. Resistance at 0.9330 has more or less contained the topside in the AUD but the move down towards the 0.92 area that we have been looking for stalled at 09240 again this week—right on the early August low."
"A “hammer” candle signal Thursday is mildly positive—the long tail and positive close is a bullish signal but the lack of follow through interest so far today mitigates the impact yesterday’s squeeze higher in the near-term outlook to some degree."
"We note that trend momentum remains negative, but it is also weak. Mixed signals on the short-term charts suggests more range trading in store for AUDUSD. Bullish prospects improve above 0.9330/35 but only a little (to 0.9395)."
"The weekly picture fails to provide much more clarity on the direction of the AUD. We still rather think the salient feature of the weekly chart here is the early July peak and reversal from the 0.95 area (forming a bearish, key week reversal signal). Trend channel resistance that has formed over the past year suggests strong resistance at 0.9455 now, with 0.9505 key resistance overall on the weeklies."
"We think the broader picture here points to a further correction of the H1 2014 rally. We would still prefer to look to fade AUDUSD gains but the charts are vague on where the optimal entry point is right now.
Key Quotes
"Since our last update, AUDUSD has moved broadly sideways. Resistance at 0.9330 has more or less contained the topside in the AUD but the move down towards the 0.92 area that we have been looking for stalled at 09240 again this week—right on the early August low."
"A “hammer” candle signal Thursday is mildly positive—the long tail and positive close is a bullish signal but the lack of follow through interest so far today mitigates the impact yesterday’s squeeze higher in the near-term outlook to some degree."
"We note that trend momentum remains negative, but it is also weak. Mixed signals on the short-term charts suggests more range trading in store for AUDUSD. Bullish prospects improve above 0.9330/35 but only a little (to 0.9395)."
"The weekly picture fails to provide much more clarity on the direction of the AUD. We still rather think the salient feature of the weekly chart here is the early July peak and reversal from the 0.95 area (forming a bearish, key week reversal signal). Trend channel resistance that has formed over the past year suggests strong resistance at 0.9455 now, with 0.9505 key resistance overall on the weeklies."
"We think the broader picture here points to a further correction of the H1 2014 rally. We would still prefer to look to fade AUDUSD gains but the charts are vague on where the optimal entry point is right now.